As America celebrates its 250th birthday with barbecues and fireworks, most of us never consider that things could have turned out very differently.
The Revolutionary War brought years of disaster, disease, prison ships and near-misses — enough to make an alternative outcome worth examining. What if the British won the American Revolution?
The answer reaches well beyond George Washington and the Founding Fathers, touching westward expansion, slavery, Native nations, Latin America and the future of the British Empire itself.
The American Revolution Was Far From Inevitable
After the Declaration of Independence in July 1776, the worst years of the war were still ahead, including the winter at Valley Forge, where nearly 2,000 people died, most from disease worsened by brutal conditions, hunger and supply shortages. The Southern Campaign later brought neighbor-versus-neighbor guerrilla warfare and devastating conventional battles.
Thousands of American soldiers also died in horrific conditions aboard British prison ships, and civilians suffered as the war spread through towns, farms and frontier settlements.
There were several times when the American Revolution was almost lost, notably the Battle of Long Island, also known as the Battle of Brooklyn, in August 1776.
British forces outmaneuvered Washington’s inexperienced army and nearly trapped it with the East River at its back. Washington’s nighttime escape kept the Continental Army alive, but the outcome was far from guaranteed.
Had Washington’s army been destroyed or captured in New York, the question of what might have happened if the British won the American Revolution would not feel nearly so theoretical.
What If the British Won the American Revolution?
Authors of alternative history such as Harry Turtledove and Michael Flynn have explored the topic, as did Robert Sobel, a financial historian who wrote "For Want of a Nail: If Burgoyne Had Won at Saratoga."
Sobel’s seminal academic-style alternate history tracks the creation of the United States of North America, which becomes a British loyalist state after the Continental Army loses the decisive battle in October 1777.
Even as the topic remains one of debate today, we really can’t know how an alternative history would have played out beyond the immediate aftermath.
What is clear is that it wouldn’t have ended well for many of the Founding Fathers.
The Founders May Have Faced the Gallows
The British military policy after putting down uprisings, notably the Jacobite rising in Scotland three decades prior to the American Revolution and later the Easter Rising in Ireland, was that leaders were quickly tried and executed.
George Washington wouldn’t have been spared, even as he was the commanding officer of the Continental Army, and many others would have faced the gallows or worse.
Depending on when the British achieved victory, some patriots—notably Benjamin Franklin—may have lived out their lives in exile in France or elsewhere.
Would the British Empire Have Expanded Differently?
In alternative history stories, the British Empire often continues to expand, and in some works of fiction, it becomes an even greater superpower than the United States. Actual historians remain suspicious of counterfactuals and aren’t quite so sure that would have happened.
Yet there may not have been the same level of expansion.
For one, the British Crown had historically called for restricting westward expansion to preserve the lucrative fur trade and to maintain peace with Native American tribes, including through the Proclamation of 1763 following the French and Indian War. The Midwest and western territories may not have been settled as quickly.
“The answer depends, I think, on when the British win? Did they crush Washington during the campaign of 1776 and scare away the French? Did they somehow win the loyalty of the South in 1780-1782,” explained Dr. Benjamin Carp, professor of history at Brooklyn College and the City University of New York.
“If the French and Spanish had held back and the British had felt more secure in India, at Gibraltar, and in the Caribbean, then General Guy Carleton might have faced a different situation when he arrived in New York City in 1782 to serve as commander-in-chief of the British army,” added Carp.
Could Britain Have Pushed Farther West?
A British victory also could have changed the shape of North America itself. Dr. Robert Allison, professor of history and global culture at Suffolk University, said Britain may have continued to view the continent as a destination for its growing population.
“Imagine that Britain does see the American continent still as an outlet for a surplus population, then likely we would see more British challenges to the Spanish along the Mississippi River, in Texas, and ultimately on the Pacific coast,” Allison said.
That would have placed additional pressure on Spanish holdings in North America.
“Britain at the negotiations in 1783 supported American claims up to the Mississippi, when France and Spain want the American boundary to be the Appalachian Mountains,” Allison said. “Britain did not want Spain or France to control North America.”
A North American Empire Instead of Australia?
That greater focus on North America could have changed British ambitions elsewhere, including in the Pacific.
“Captain Cook had been in the Pacific, and Britain was developing an interest there,” Allison added, but any additional focus on North America may have meant “no British establishment of Australia.”
Could Mexico Have Become the Dominant Power in North America?
Without the United States’ rapid westward expansion, another independent nation could have become the dominant power in the Americas—namely Mexico, which may have still won independence from Spain and then retained control over large portions of the Southwest.
Of course, that assumes that Latin America would have even sought independence from Spain without seeing the United States as a model for breaking away from a colonial master.
Moreover, the revolutions throughout the Spanish Empire only occurred due to the Napoleonic Wars, which may not have happened had the French people not also been inspired by the American Revolution.
This is why “what ifs” become so tricky.
Yet, if Latin America did rise and succeed where Washington and Thomas Jefferson failed, the British Empire may have been forced to fight these upstarts. Still, there wouldn’t have been a Monroe Doctrine to stop European influence in the region.
Native Nations May Have Gained Time
“A conciliatory peace would have pardoned the leaders of the rebellion,” said Dr. Robert Gross, professor emeritus of history at the University of Connecticut. “A harsh settlement would have perhaps decapitated local leadership and put vengeful Friends of Government and Loyalists in charge. Native peoples might have been the big winners, with Britain protecting their lands and sovereignty from encroachment by the defeated Patriots.”
Those might have been short-term results.
“Over the longer term, Britain might not have tried to restrain the burgeoning colonial population behind tight borders; after all, they betrayed the Indians in the Treaty of Paris,” Gross continued.
And perhaps the British Empire could have driven out its colonial rivals.
“A British victory would have reinforced Britain’s standing as the dominant world power,” said Gross. “Free from worry about the pesky colonists, it might have set out to conquer more of its enemies’ colonies in the Caribbean.”
Would Slavery Have Ended Without the Civil War?
One of the more controversial considerations is what a loss for the colonists would have meant for the issue of slavery.
The British government passed the Slavery Abolition Act in 1833, ending slavery throughout much of the British Empire. Had the British won the American Revolution and kept the colonies under imperial rule, slavery may have ended decades earlier than in our timeline, potentially avoiding the horrors of the American Civil War.
Yet liberty would have suffered in other ways, and slavery may not have ended as cleanly or quickly as that theory suggests.
“A British victory would have been a triumph for the forces of hierarchy and inequality. If it were a quick win, then the incentives to recruit enslaved men to serve in the British forces would have dissipated quickly,” said Gross. “The Crown had been vetoing colonial legislatures’ measures to shut down the slave trade. Presumably, it would have renewed this action.”
Could Britain Have Divided America?
It is also possible that liberty could have come in other ways. London may not have had a choice except to fight repeated uprisings. As the colonies grew in size, Britain may have been forced to grant localized parliament and dominion status to placate the population, or risk rebellions in other parts of the empire occurring at the same time.
Still, there was very much a chance that the United States could have won the war and then lost the peace.
The British may not have minded seeing an un-united collection of small nations in North America, ones that could be brought under some form of control.
“The Earl of Shelburne instructed him ‘to revive old affections and extinguish late jealousies.’ Many people thought that there wasn’t much unifying the Americans to one another; given the financial difficulties of the Confederation Congress, some saw the collapse of the United States as a likely outcome,” suggested Carp.
“Perhaps British North America—now Canada—could have peeled Vermont away. If the American government couldn’t hold, maybe the British could have enticed some states to become clients within the imperial trading network and set them up as rivals to the independent America.
“Surely complaints about British rule would have continued, but perhaps more of North America would have stayed part of the British Empire well into the nineteenth century.”
Editor's Note: This article is part of Hook & Barrel's special series on the American Revolution highlighting the firearms and people who made a real difference in the birth of the United States. Check out the rest of the series here:
- Guns of the American Revolution
- Soldiers of the American Revolution: What They Carried
- The Very First American Snipers
- Walk the Battlefields: Must-Visit Revolutionary War Sites
- How Guerrilla Warfare Tactics Helped Win the American Revolution
- Lesser Known Bloody Battles of the American Revolution
- How the American Revolution Created the Headless Horseman
- American Revolution: How Hunters Kept the Continental Army Fed
- Battlefield Songs: The Role of Music in the American Revolution
- Rogues of the American Revolution, from the Doan Gang to Franklin’s Son
- The Culper Spy Ring: George Washington’s Secret Weapon
- The Generals Who Won and Lost the American Revolution